Original Articles
15 June 2022
Vol. 17 No. s1 (2022): Special issue on COVID-19
1
0
0
0
Smart Citations1
0
0
0
Citing PublicationsSupportingMentioningContrasting
See how this article has been cited at scite.ai
scite shows how a scientific paper has been cited by providing the context of the citation, a classification describing whether it supports, mentions, or contrasts the cited claim, and a label indicating in which section the citation was made.
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of births in Pernambuco Brazil
This study aimed at analysing the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the time series and spatial patterns of live births in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2010 to 2021. This is an ecological study that applied intervention analysis in time series, with the goal to identify how projected data behaved in relation to observed data in the months December 2020 to November 2021, i.e. months representing conceptions from March 2020 to April 2021. For the state of Pernambuco, a discrepancy up to +5.7% was found between the observed and projected data, while the respective difference for the São Francisco mesoregion showed the opposite trend with maximum discrepancy of –9%. The results did not indicate a clear change in the number of live births but supported the expected continuation of the downward trend of the previous years. Considering the importance of the number of live births in the context of demography, economy and public health, monitoring must be maintained to analyse the possible future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on live birth projections.
Aassve A, Cavalli N, Mencarini L, Plach S, Bacci ML, 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic and human fertility. Science 369:370-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc9520
Araújo TVB, Rodrigues LC, Ximenes RAA, Miranda-Filho DB, Montarroyos UR, Melo APL, Valongueiro S, Albuquerque MFPM, Souza WV, Braga C, Brandão Filho SP, Cordeiro MT, Vazquez E, Cruz DDCS, Henriques CMP, Bezerra LCA, Castanha PMS, Dhalia R, Marques-Júnior ETA, Martelli CMT, 2016. Association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil, January to May, 2016: preliminary report of a case-control study. Lancet Infect Dis 16:1356-63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30318-8
Bailey MJ, Bart L, Lang VW, 2022. The missing baby bust: the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for contraceptive use, pregnancy, and childbirth among low income women. Popul Res Policy Rev [Epub ahead of print]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9
Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H, 2021. Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19. Popul Space Place 28:e2546. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2546
Bhardwaj R, 2020. A predictive model for the evolution of COVID-19. Transactions of INAE 5:133-40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41403-020-00130-w
Box GEP, Jenkins GM, 1970. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, 500 pp.
Burnham KP, Anderson DR, 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference - A practical information - Theoretic approach, Second Edition. Springer-Verlag, Inc., New York, NY, USA.
Carmo RL, Camargo KCM, 2018. Dinâmica demográfica brasileira recente: padrões regionais de diferenciação - Texto para discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA). Available from: https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_2415.pdf
Castro MC, Han QC, Carvalho LR, Victora CG, França GVA, 2018. Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil. Proc Natl Acad Sci 115:6177-82. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718476115
Chandra S, Yang-Liang Y, 2015. Fertility decline and the 1918 influenza pandemic in Taiwan. Biodemograp Soc Biol 61:266-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2015.1062718
Chandra S, Christensen J, Mamelund SE, Paneth N, 2018. Short-term birth sequelae of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in the United States: state-level analysis. Am J Epidemiol 187:2585-95. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy153
Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, Qiu Y, Wang J, Liu Y, Wei Y, Xia J, Yu T, Zhang X, Zhang L, 2020. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 395:507-13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7
Ciotti M, Ciccozzi M, Terrinoni A, Wen-Can J, Cheng-Bin W, Bernardini S, 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic. Crit Rev Clin Lab Sci 57:365-88. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10408363.2020.1783198
Collin J, Byström E, Carnahan A, Ahrne M, 2020. Public Health Agency of Sweden’s Brief Report: Pregnant and postpartum women with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in intensive care in Sweden. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 99:819-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/aogs.13901
Coutinho RZ, Lima LC, Leocadio VA, Bernardes T, 2020. Considerations about the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on fertility and sexual and reproductive health of Brazilian women. Rev Bras Estud Popul 37:e0130. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0130
DATASUS (Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System), 2022. Painéis de monitoramento de nascidos vivos [online database]. Available from: http://svs.aids.gov.br/dantps/centrais-de-conteudos/paineis-de-monitoramento/natalidade/nascidos-vivos/ Accessed: March 15, 2022.
De Livera AM, Hyndman RJ, Snyder RD, 2011. Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. J Am Stat Assoc 106:1513-27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.tm09771
Feng Y, Xin L, 2021. Causal estimation of COVID-19 and SARS on China’s stock market: evidence from a time series counterfactual prediction. Economic Research-EkonomskaIstraživanja [Epub ahead of print]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1910533
Garcia LP, Duarte E, 2020. Nonpharmaceutical interventions for tackling the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. Epidemiol Serv Saúde 29:e2020222. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742020000400019
Góis AN, Laureano EE, Santos DS, Sánchez DE, Souza LF, Vieira RCA, Oliveira JC, Santana-Santos E, 2020. Lockdown as an intervention measure to mitigate the spread of COVID-19: a modeling study. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 53:e20200417. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020
Guedes MBOG, Assis SJC, Sanchis GJB, Araújo DN, Oliveira AGRC, Lopes JM, 2021. COVID-19 in Brazilian cities: Impact of social determinants, coverage and quality of primary health care. PLoS One 16:e0257347. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257347
Haslett J, Raftery AE, 1989. Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: assessing Ireland’s wind power resource (with discussion). Appl Stat 38:1-50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2347679
Hastie T, Tibshirani R, 1993. Varying coefficient models (with discussion). J R Statist Soc B 55:757-96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1993.tb01939.x
Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Ord JK, Snyder RD, 2008. Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach. Springer-Verlag. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71918-2
IPEA (Institute for Applied Economic Research), 2021. Post covid-19 Brazil: contributions of the Institute for Applied Economic Research, IPEA, 92 pp. Available from: https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/relatorio_institucional/210428_ri_web.pdf
Marteleto LJ, Guedes G, Coutinho RZ, Weitzman A, 2020. Live births and fertility amid the Zika epidemic in Brazil. Demography 57:843-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00871-x
Marteleto LJ, Dondero M, Koepp A, 2021. Scars from a previous epidemic among white and black women: social proximity to Zika and fertility intentions during the Covid-19 pandemic. Soc ArXiv Papers [pre-print]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/3nqvy
Moreira MM, Fusco W, 2021. Nascimentos e Mortes no Nordeste. Texto de Divulgação Científica, Fundação Joaquim Nabuco. Available from: https://www.gov.br/fundaj/pt-br/composicao/dipes-1/centro-de-estudos-de-cultura-memoria-e-identidade-cecim/publicacoes-1/nota-tecnica_cecim_01-2021.pdf
Morettin PA, Toloi CMC, 2018. Análise de series temporais - modelos lineares multivariados. Blucher, 474 pp.
Nakamura-Pereira M, Andreucci CB, Menezes MO, Knobel R, Takemoto MLS, 2020. Worldwide maternal deaths due to COVID-19: a brief review. Int J Gynaecol Obstet 151:148-50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijgo.13328
Pernambuco, 2020. Caderno de Informações de Saúde. Secretaria de Saúde de Pernambuco [online]. Available from: http://portal.saude.pe.gov.br/aplicativo/secretaria/cadernos-de-informacoes-em-saude Accessed: March 19, 2022.
Pfefferbaum B, North CS, 2020. Mental health and the Covid-19 pandemic. N Engl J Med 383:510-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2008017
Rigby RA, Stasinopoulos MD, Heller GZ, Bastiani F, 2019. Distributions for modeling location, scale, and shape - Using GAMLSS in R. Chapman and Hall/CRC, London, UK, 560 pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429298547
Shereen MA, Khan S, Kazmi A, Bashir N, Siddique R, 2020. COVID-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses. J Adv Res 24:91-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2020.03.005
Souza ASR, Amorim MMR, 2021. Maternal mortality by COVID-19 in Brazil. Rev Bras Saude Mater Infant 21:253-6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9304202100s100014
Stone L, 2020. Will the coronavirus spike births? Institute for Family Studies [online]. Available from: https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births
Takemoto MLS, Menezes MO, Andreucci CB, Nakamura-Pereira M, Amorim MMR, Katz L, Knobel R, 2020. The tragedy of COVID-19 in Brazil: 124 maternal deaths and counting. Int J Gynaecol Obstet 151:154-6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijgo.13300
Ullah MA, Moin AT, Araf Y, Bhuiyan AR, Griffiths MD, Gozal D, 2020. Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate. Front Public Health 8:578438. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.578438
UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), 2021. How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect births? Technical Brief, UNFPA [online]. Available from: https://www.unfpa.org/publications/how-covid-19-affects-births Accessed: March 16, 2022.
Vargas A, Saad E, Dimech GS, Santos RH, Sivini MA, Albuquerque LC, Lima PM, Barreto IC, Andrade ME, Estima NM, Carvalho PI, Azevedo RS, Vasconcelos RC, Assunção RS, Frutuoso LC, Carmo GM, Souza PB, Wada MY, Oliveira WK, Henriques CM, Percio J, 2016. Characteristics of the first cases of microcephaly possibly related to Zika virus reported in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil. Epidemiol Serv Saúde 25:691-700. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742016000400003
WHO (World Health Organization), 2021. WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard [online]. Available from: https://covid19.who.int/ Accessed: October 21, 2021.
Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, Li X, Yang B, Song J, Zhao X, Huang B, Shi W, Lu R, Niu P, Zhan F, Ma X, Wang D, Xu W, Wu G, Gao GF, Tan W, 2020. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med 382:727-33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017
How to Cite
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of births in Pernambuco Brazil. (2022). Geospatial Health, 17(s1). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2022.1069
Copyright (c) 2022 the Author(s)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
PAGEPress has chosen to apply the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0) to all manuscripts to be published.
