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Spatiotemporal transmission and socio-climatic factors related to paediatric tuberculosis in north-western Ethiopia

Kefyalew Addis Alene, Kerri Viney, Emma S. McBryde, Archie C.A. Clements
  • Kefyalew Addis Alene
    Research School of Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia | kefyalew.alene@anu.edu.au
  • Kerri Viney
    Research School of Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
  • Emma S. McBryde
    Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
  • Archie C.A. Clements
    Research School of Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

Abstract

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) in children reflects continuing and recent transmission within a population. This study aimed to identify spatiotemporal and socio-climatic factors associated with paediatric TB in north-western Ethiopia. Multivariate Poisson regression models were computed using a Bayesian framework. Estimates of parameters were generated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. A total of 2,240 children aged under 15 years diagnosed with TB during the years 2013- 2016 were included in the analysis. The annual TB incidence rates were 44 and 28 per 100,000 children, for children aged under 15 and 5 years, respectively. Spatial clustering of TB was observed in the border area of north-western Ethiopia. The spatio-temporal transmission of childhood TB was found to be associated with district level socio-climatic factors such as urbanisation [relative risk (RR): 1.8; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.2, 2.6], lower educational status (RR: 1.5; 95% CrI: 1.0, 2.1), a high percentage of internal migration (RR: 1.3; 95% CrI: 1.0, 1.6), high temperature (RR: 1.3; 95% CrI: 1.0, 1.7) and high rainfall (RR: 1.5; 95% CrI: 1.1, 2.0). We conclude that interventions targeting hotspot districts with a high proportion of childhood TB are important to reduce TB transmission in northwest Ethiopia.

Keywords

Tuberculosis; Transmission; Paediatric; Epidemiology; Ethiopia

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Submitted: 2017-04-07 15:29:49
Published: 2017-11-27 15:30:30
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Copyright (c) 2017 Kefyalew Addis Alene, Kerri Viney, Emma S McBryde, Archie C A Clements

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