https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2024.1290
Application of modern spatio-temporal analysis technologies to identify and visualize patterns of rabies emergence among different animal species in Kazakhstan
Submitted: 29 March 2024
Accepted: 6 July 2024
Published: 31 July 2024
Accepted: 6 July 2024
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All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.
Authors
During the period 2013-2023, 917 cases of rabies among animals were registered in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Out of these, the number of cases in farm animals amounted to 515, in wild animals to 50 and in pets to 352. Data on rabies cases were obtained from the Committee for Veterinary Control and Supervision of Kazakhstan, as well as during expeditionary trips. This research was carried out to demonstrate the use of modern information and communication technologies, geospatial analysis technologies in particular, to identify and visualize spatio-temporal patterns of rabies emergence among different animal species in Kazakhstan. We also aimed to predict an expected number of cases next year based on time series analysis. Applying the ‘space-time cube’ technique to a time series representingcases from the three categories of animals at the district-level demonstrated a decreasing trend of incidence in most of the country over the study period. We estimated the expected number of rabies cases for 2024 using a random forest model based on the space-time cube in Arc-GIS. This type of model imposes only a few assumptions on the data and is useful when dealing with time series including complicated trends. The forecast showed that in most districts of Kazakhstan, a total of no more than one case of rabies should beexpected, with the exception of certain areas in the North and the East of the country, where the number of cases could reach three. The results of this research may be useful to the veterinary service in mapping the current epidemiological situation and in planning targeted vaccination campaigns among different categories of animals.
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Supporting Agencies
Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of KazakhstanHow to Cite
Mukhanbetkaliyeva, A. A., Kabzhanova, A. M., Kadyrov, A. S., Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Y., Bakishev, T. G., Bainiyazov, A. A., … Abdrakhmanov, S. K. (2024). Application of modern spatio-temporal analysis technologies to identify and visualize patterns of rabies emergence among different animal species in Kazakhstan. Geospatial Health, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2024.1290
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