Identification of environmental parameters and risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis in Ethiopia by using geographical information systems and a statistical approach

  • Teshome Tsegaw Armauer Hansen Research Institute, All-Africa Leprosy and TB Rehabilitation and Training Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Endalamaw Gadisa Armauer Hansen Research Institute, All-Africa Leprosy and TB Rehabilitation and Training Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Ahmed Seid Armauer Hansen Research Institute, All-Africa Leprosy and TB Rehabilitation and Training Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Adugna Abera Armauer Hansen Research Institute, All-Africa Leprosy and TB Rehabilitation and Training Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Aklilu Teshome Armauer Hansen Research Institute, All-Africa Leprosy and TB Rehabilitation and Training Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Abate Mulugeta Disease Prevention and Control Programmes, World Health Organization, Ethiopia Country Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Merce Herrero Disease Prevention and Control Programmes, World Health Organization, Ethiopia Country Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Daniel Argaw Department for the Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, Leishmaniasis Control Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • Alvar Jorge Department for the Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, Leishmaniasis Control Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • Abraham Aseffa | aseffaa@gmail.com Armauer Hansen Research Institute, All-Africa Leprosy and TB Rehabilitation and Training Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease strongly influenced by environmental factors, has (re)-emerged in Ethiopia during the last two decades and is currently of increasing public health concern. Based on VL incidence in each locality (kebele) documented from federal or regional health bureaus and/or hospital records in the country, geographical information systems (GIS), coupled with binary and multivariate logistic regression methods, were employed to develop a risk map for Ethiopia with respect to VL based on soil type, altitude, rainfall, slope and temperature. The risk model was subsequently validated in selected sites. This environmental VL risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 86% with mean land surface temperature and soil type found to be the best predictors of VL. The total population at risk was estimated at 3.2 million according to the national population census in 2007. The approach presented here should facilitate the identification of priority areas for intervention and the monitoring of trends as well as providing input for further epidemiological and applied research with regard to this disease in Ethiopia.

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Published
2013-05-01
Section
Original Articles
Keywords:
visceral leishmaniasis, neglected tropical diseases, risk map, geographical information systems, Ethiopia.
Statistics
Abstract views: 1598

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How to Cite
Tsegaw, T., Gadisa, E., Seid, A., Abera, A., Teshome, A., Mulugeta, A., Herrero, M., Argaw, D., Jorge, A., & Aseffa, A. (2013). Identification of environmental parameters and risk mapping of visceral leishmaniasis in Ethiopia by using geographical information systems and a statistical approach. Geospatial Health, 7(2), 299-308. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2013.88