Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa

  • Ernest O. Asare | asare2020@yahoo.com Department of Physics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy.
  • Adrian M. Tompkins Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy.
  • Leonard K. Amekudzi Department of Physics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.
  • Volker Ermert Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Germany.
  • Robert Redl Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians- University, Munich, Germany.

Abstract

An energy budget model is developed to predict water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed water column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The model shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed water temperatures, monitored between June and November 2013 within a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana. There was a close match between larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or observed water temperatures. The water temperature scheme represents a significant improvement over assuming the water temperature to be equal to air temperature. The energy budget model requires observed minimum and maximum temperatures, information that is generally available from weather stations. Our results show that hourly variations in water temperature are important for the simulation of aquatic-stage development times. By contrast, we found that larval development is insensitive to sub-hourly variations. Modelling suggests that in addition to water temperature, accurate estimation of degree-day development time is very important to correctly predict the larvae development times. The results highlight the potential of the model to predict water temperature of temporary bodies of surface water. Our study represents an important contribution towards the improvement of weatherdriven dynamical disease models, including those designed for malaria early forecasting systems.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Ernest O. Asare, Department of Physics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
Department of physics, PhD student
Published
2016-03-31
Section
Original Articles
Keywords:
Water temperature, Energy balance model, Larvae development time
Statistics
Abstract views: 1491

PDF: 699
HTML: 2586
Share it

PlumX Metrics

PlumX Metrics provide insights into the ways people interact with individual pieces of research output (articles, conference proceedings, book chapters, and many more) in the online environment. Examples include, when research is mentioned in the news or is tweeted about. Collectively known as PlumX Metrics, these metrics are divided into five categories to help make sense of the huge amounts of data involved and to enable analysis by comparing like with like.

How to Cite
Asare, E., Tompkins, A., Amekudzi, L., Ermert, V., & Redl, R. (2016). Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa. Geospatial Health, 11(1s). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2016.391

Most read articles by the same author(s)